LinkedIn Post Draft Score: 63/100

Draft Content

Roy Amara said it in the 1970s. "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run." Amara ran the Institute for the Future and was a Stanford computer scientist. He was talking about how humans process technology adoption curves. The observation is now called Amara's Law. It's one of the cleanest heuristics for any executive deciding what to fund, what to shelve, and what to prepare for. The short-run overestimate is the trap most companies fall into. Board deck slides claim the new technology "will transform the industry in 18 months." Twelve months later the transformation hasn't happened. Executives conclude the technology was hype and stop paying attention. That is exactly when the long-run curve kicks in. Consider a short list. The internet. Overestimated in 1999. Underestimated by 2010. Mobile computing. Overestimated in 2007. Underestimated by 2020. Cloud infrastructure. Overestimated in 2010. Underestimated by 2018. Electric vehicles. Overestimated in 2018. Underestimated by 2025. AI infrastructure right now sits exactly in the short-run overestimate window. The BIS Annual Report flagged it. So did the venture reset of late 2025. The mistake most boards will make in the next 18 months is not investing in AI. It's losing focus on it because the short-run returns disappoint. Amara's Law says the productive discipline is the opposite. Slow down the short-run capex. Speed up the long-run capability build. The technology hasn't failed. It's following the same shape every general-purpose technology has ever followed. If you appreciate the discipline of thinking in adoption curves not headlines, follow along. I post on this every week. Source: Roy Amara, Institute for the Future, articulated 1960s–1970s.

Score Breakdown

main points: 8/10

post length: 7/10

readability: 8/10

hook strength: 5/10

call to action: 6/10

format structure: 7/10

hashtag analysis: 3/10

engagement potential: 6/10